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Discover the art of crafting exquisite homemade pasta in this guided class. Dive into the fundamentals of crafting a traditional pasta dough using simple ingredients like flour, eggs, and oil. Through hands-on instruction, master the essential techniques for crafting gourmet Italian delicacies entirely from scratch.
In partnership with Galleria Floral and Design, join us to learn the artistry of floral design. Craft your very own custom winter greenery floral arrangement, bringing to life the beauty of fresh flowers and lush greens. You’ll explore art concepts, showcase inspiring examples, and let you dive hands-on into the creation process, crafting arrangements that exude vibrant cheerfulness. Unleash your inner artist and let your creativity bloom in this captivating floral class!
Join our culinary maestros and learn the ropes of crafting Deer Valley’s legendary Turkey Chili from scratch. As the aroma fills the air, you’ll become a chili champion ready to warm hearts and taste buds. This is a heavily guarded resort recipe that is only shared in full during this class!
Friday, January 12, 2024:
This was number one on my list last year and, so far, my forecast was spot on. The reason why I’m calling it out again is because the market performed better in 2023 than I expected. Continued price growth, combined with significantly higher mortgage rates, might suggest to some that the market will implode in 2024, but I find this implausible.
The U.S. economy has been remarkably resilient, which has led the Federal Reserve to indicate that they will keep mortgage rates higher for longer to tame inflation. But data shows inflation and the broader economy are starting to slow, which should allow mortgage rates to ease in 2024. That said, I think rates will only fall to around 6% by the end of the year.
Although I expect a modest increase in listing activity in 2024, many homeowners will be hesitant to sell and lose their current mortgage rate. The latest data shows 80% of mortgaged homeowners in the U.S. have rates at or below 5%. Although they may not be inclined to sell right now, when rates fall to within 1.5% of their current rate, some will be motivated to move.
While many forecasters said home prices would fall in 2023, that was not the case, as the lack of inventory propped up home values. Given that it’s unlikely that there will be a significant increase in the number of homes for sale, I don’t expect prices to drop in 2024. However, growth will be a very modest 1%, which is the lowest pace seen for many years, but growth all the same.
During the pandemic there were a number of more affordable markets across the country that experienced significant price increases, followed by price declines post-pandemic. I expected home prices in those areas to take longer to recover than the rest of the nation, but I’m surprised by how quickly they have started to grow, with most markets having either matched their historic highs or getting close to it – even in the face of very high borrowing costs. In 2024, I expect prices to match or exceed their 2022 highs in the vast majority of metro areas across the country.
Although new construction remains tepid, builders are benefiting from the lack of supply in the resale market and are taking a greater share of listings. While this might sound like a positive for builders, it’s coming at a cost through lower list prices and increased incentives such as mortgage rate buy downs. Although material costs have softened, it will remain very hard for builders to deliver enough housing to meet the demand.
With home prices continuing to rise and the pace of borrowing costs far exceeding income growth, affordability will likely erode further in 2024. For affordability to improve, it would require either a significant drop in home values, a significant drop in mortgage rates, a significant increase in household incomes, or some combination of the three. But I’m afraid this is very unlikely. First-time home buyers will be the hardest hit by this continued lack of affordable housing.
The government has started to take housing and affordability more seriously, with several states already having adopted new land use policies aimed at releasing developable land. In 2024, I hope cities and counties will continue to ease their restrictive land use policies. I also hope they’ll continue to streamline the permitting process and reduce the fees that are charged to builders, as these costs are passed directly onto the home buyer, which further impacts affordability.
Many expected that the end of forbearance would bring a veritable tsunami of homes to market, but that didn’t happen. At its peak, almost 1-in-10 homes in America were in the program, but that has fallen to below 1%. That said, foreclosure starts have picked up, but still remain well below pre-pandemic levels. Look for delinquency levels to continue rising in 2024, but they will only be returning to the long-term average and are not a cause for concern.
2023 will likely be remembered as the year when home sales were the lowest since the housing bubble burst in 2008. I expect the number of homes for sale to improve modestly in 2024 which, combined with mortgage rates trending lower, should result in about 4.4 million home sales. Ultimately though, demand exceeding supply will mean that sellers will still have the upper hand.
As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics.
Date: November 25 | 5:30pm
Join us on the front drive for our annual tree lighting ceremony accompanied by live entertainment, holiday cookies and a gourmet hot chocolate bar.
9100 Marsac Avenue
Park City, UT 84060
There are several restaurants in and around Park City offering nothing but the best for your holiday experience. From Thanksgiving classics, to prix fixe dine-in dinner options, to curbside pickup, and even an entire Thanksgiving dinner with all the trimmings, you and your guests can easily enjoy a meal fit for the whole family.
Butcher’s Chop House & Bar: Offering a full Thanksgiving meal from 2 to 10 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day. Enjoy traditional turkey, mashed potatoes, stuffing and more, followed by your choice of traditional pies. Regular menu is also available as well as to-go and curbside pickup. Reservations are recommended and can be made on Resy.com or by calling (435) 647-0040.
Deer Valley Resort: Offers a unique Thanksgiving experience with their specialty take-away menus. They provide delectable options for various holidays, including Thanksgiving, carefully crafted with the finest ingredients to make your celebrations extraordinary. Whether you’re planning an intimate dinner for two, or a feast for the whole family, Deer Valley has you covered. You can place your order by calling 435-615-2400, and all orders are available for pickup at the Deer Valley Café, allowing you to focus on creating cherished moments with your loved ones.
Escala Provisions Company: Join Escala Provisions Company for Thanksgiving, with dinner available from 1 to 9 p.m. Enjoy a choice of sweet potato & bourbon bisque or sherry-poached pear salad to start, followed by a main course featuring citrus & herb-brined turkey, sage & sausage stuffing, whipped buttermilk potatoes, haricots verts & wild mushrooms, roasted sweet potatoes, and crispy Brussels sprouts. A vegan option includes roasted delicata squash and dirty Calrose rice with vegan sausage. Finish your meal with family-style desserts. All this for just $69 per person. Reserve your spot on Open Table.
Flanagan’s On Main: Invites you to join them for a Thanksgiving Dinner on Nov. 23, from 11 a.m. to 9 p.m. The menu featuring options like sweet potato soup or green salad for starters, turkey breast with house-made mashers, brown gravy, stuffing, green beans, and cranberry sauce for the entrée, and homemade apple cake with vanilla ice cream for dessert. The price is $50 for adults and $20 for children under 12, plus tax and gratuity.
Grub Steak: Offers a Thanksgiving Dinner on Nov. 23 featuring a three-course meal. You can choose from starters like house salad, wild rice and mushroom soup, or baby romaine caesar salad. The entrée options include carved roasted tom turkey, autumn harvest stuffing, and various accompaniments. For dessert, you can indulge in pumpkin pie with vanilla bean whip cream or spiced apple bread pudding with a High West Bourbon sauce. The cost is $45.75 for adults and $24.75 for children 12 and under.
Hearth and Hill: Is open from 3 to 7 p.m. on Thanksgiving Day offering a holiday special of butternut squash soup, roasted turkey breast, mashed potatoes, stuffing, green beans, cranberry sauce and homemade pie. A full a la carte menu will also be available.
Hill’s Kitchen: Provides a Thanksgiving family meal that serves eight guests. This fully cooked meal includes a Mary’s Free-Range whole turkey, rosemary and sage cornbread stuffing, roasted garlic mashed potatoes with smoked cheddar cheese, candied yams with marshmallows, roasted brussels sprouts with bacon and dried cranberries, cranberry sauce and turkey gravy. You can also add extra sides for an additional cost, such as cheddar biscuits with honey butter and more. Pick-up is available on Nov. 23 from 10 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. and a credit card is required to reserve your order.
HoneyB Cakes and Pastries: This hidden gem bakery, adds a sweet touch to your Thanksgiving feast. Their Thanksgiving Dessert Menu offers a delightful array of options: classic pumpkin pie and mixed berry pie, both with a buttery crust, the elegant almond apple galette, and the indulgent chocolate cream Pie. Complement your meal with a dozen soft, pull-apart butter rolls, and finish on a high note with pumpkin chocolate chip cookies. Make your Thanksgiving sweeter with HoneyB’s delectable treats.
Chefsgiving at KITA: Offering a special Thanksgiving event where their talented chefs prepare a four course Thanksgiving dinner that includes roasted butternut squash soup, autumn harvest salad, sage and honey glazed turkey plate and a selection of delightful sweets for dessert. This event aims to give back, with a percentage of every meal going to support the Christian Center of Park City’s food assistance programs. They even offer children’s plates, so it’s a great choice for the whole family. Reservations are recommended and the event takes place on Nov. 23 from noon to 9 p.m.
Luna’s Kitchen: Offering a special Thanksgiving menu for pick-up on Wednesday, Nov. 22. The menu includes a chef curated charcuterie and cheese platter, crudités and hummus platter, curried butternut squash bisque, sage and apple stuffing, green bean casserole, creamy Boursin mashed potatoes and more. They also provide dessert options like pecan pie and dutch apple pie. Additionally, you can enjoy a Black Friday brunch featuring a whole quiche and ooey gooey cinnamon rolls.
Mountain Wellness Bar: Offers a Thanksgiving menu that’s available until November 19th, with orders to be placed by 11 a.m. The full Thanksgiving menu can be picked up or delivered on Tuesday, November 21st, from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m. Serving 6 or more, the menu features mouthwatering items, including gluten-free cornbread sausage stuffing, sweet potato mash with roasted maple pecans and house-made paleo marshmallows, roasted carrots with tahini and pomegranate, green bean casserole, and organic cranberry sauce. Elevate your Thanksgiving with Mountain Wellness Bar’s wholesome offerings.
No Name Saloon & Annex Burger: Annual free turkey dinner starting at 2 p.m. until it’s gone. A long time tradition, the annual free turkey dinner will be plated and served directly to your table. Dine-in only. If you are craving a famous buffalo burger, the full menu will be available for purchase after 6 p.m as well.
Park City Culinary Institute: Discover the art of pie-making at Park City Culinary Institute’s holiday class. Learn to create their crowd-pleasing pumpkin pie infused with whiskey and topped with scented whipped cream. Plus, master the craft of making a bourbon chocolate pecan pie to take home for your loved ones. Elevate your dessert game this Thanksgiving with these delectable pies!
Sip, Shop & S’mores at Pendry Plaza: Pendry Plaza at Canyons Village is offering a delightful way to kick off the holiday and ski season with their Sip, Shop & S’mores event during Thanksgiving weekend. You can stroll through the plaza’s boutiques, specialty stores, and galleries and enjoy a variety of dining options. They will even provide complimentary hot chocolate and s’mores bar at the Après Pendry patio and fire pits. It’s a great opportunity to make your holiday shopping merrier while enjoying the seasonal ambiance. The event takes place on Friday, Nov. 24, and Saturday, Nov. 25, from 3 p.m. to 6 p.m.
Powder at Waldorf Astoria Park City: Offers a Thanksgiving experience for $135 per person, excluding taxes and gratuities. They recommend making reservations for this special event. The menu features a variety of options, including roasted butternut squash soup, belgian endive salad, cider braised pork belly, slow roasted prime ribeye, slow roasted turkey two ways and pan seared Alaskan halibut. Family-style sides and a selection of delectable desserts are also included. It’s a fantastic way to enjoy a lavish Thanksgiving feast.
Savoury Kitchen: Although closed on Thanksgiving and Christmas, pre-made meals are available to be delivered the day before. Choose from a sage butter rubbed oven roasted turkey, a roasted dry aged beef rib roast, or a maple glazed pork roast. Add a variety of traditional sides like green beans, glazed carrots, preserves, biscuits and more. Don’t forget pie, they have pies for days! All food is packaged in eco-friendly tins, with re-heat instructions and an easy clean up. Call (435) 608-1408 or email info@savouryparkcity.com to place an order.
The St. Regis Deer Valley: Offering a bountiful and beautiful Thanksgiving Buffet at their award-winning signature restaurant, RIME. This luxurious mountain resort provides a unique Thanksgiving experience, complete with activities for all to enjoy, including an outdoor petting zoo, candle crafting, s’mores tradition and live music. The Thanksgiving Buffet menu includes a variety of soups, salads, mini plates, a carvery, side dishes and a dessert station. Adults can enjoy this lavish buffet for $130, and children under twelve can join for $50. The buffet is served between 11 a.m. and 7 p.m., and reservations can be made on their website.
Vessel Kitchen: Offering made-from-scratch, delicious sides to compliment your home cooked bird. Menu offerings include “Everything but the Bird” family meal bundles, the perfect variety of Thanksgiving dishes so you can focus on just one thing, the turkey. The standard bundle includes a choice of two fall market sides, mashed potatoes and turkey gravy, cheesy bread pudding stuffing, brussels slaw, cranberry sauce, house-made dinner rolls and pecan-pie bread pudding. The gluten free bundle comes with choice of three fall market sides, mashed potatoes and turkey gravy, gluten free stuffing, Brussels slaw, cranberry sauce, gluten free dinner rolls and specialty normal ice cream. You can also order an array of side dishes from the fall menu. Place your order online for pickup, today.
Regional Economic Overview
After picking up in the second quarter of this year, year-over-year employment growth has pulled back again. Utah added 39,000 jobs over the past 12 months, which represents an annual growth rate of 2.3%. This is the lowest pace of job gains since the pandemic started. Job growth was led by the Salt Lake City metro area, where employment rose 2.7%. This was followed by the Ogden and Provo metro areas, where employment rose 2.4% and 1.7%, respectively.
Utah’s unemployment rate in August was 2.5%, which is up .1% year over year. At the county level, the lowest jobless rate was in Morgan County (2.5%) and the highest was in Weber County, where 3.1% of the workforce were without jobs. In aggregate, the unemployment rate within the counties contained in this report was 3%.
❱ In the third quarter of 2023, 6,675 homes sold in the areas covered by this report. This was down 9.5% compared to the third quarter of 2022 and was 5.7% lower than in the second quarter of this year.
❱ Although total sales volumes have fallen, they rose in Wasatch, Summit, and Morgan counties compared the third quarter of 2022. These same three counties also saw sales grow between the second and third quarters of this year.
❱ As sales volumes fell, listing activity rose 28.7% compared to the second quarter of 2023. Clearly, more choice in the market was not enough to tempt buyers who were also faced with significantly higher financing costs.
❱ Pending sales fell 8.9% from the second quarter, suggesting that closings in the fourth quarter may also be lackluster.
❱ The average sale price grew 4% from the same time in 2022 to $651,913. Prices were also 3.8% higher than in the second quarter of 2023.
❱ Regionally, median list prices in the third quarter were flat compared to the second quarter of the year. However, asking prices were higher in Wasatch, Summit, and Morgan counties.
❱ Year over year, prices rose in four counties but fell in three. With just 28 sales in the quarter, Morgan County had a significant price increase, but it’s such a small market that sizeable price swings are not unusual. Compared to the second quarter of 2023, prices rose in all counties except Davis and Summit, where prices fell 1.7% and 13.8%, respectively.
❱ Price growth has been slowing, which is to be expected given the significant rise in mortgage rates. I don’t expect to see much in the way of price growth for the balance of the year due to both higher financing costs and more choice in the market.
Mortgage rates continued trending higher in the third quarter of 2023 and are now at levels we have not seen since the fall of 2000. Mortgage rates are tied to the interest rate (yield) on 10-year treasuries, and they move in the opposite direction of the economy. Unfortunately for mortgage rates, the economy remains relatively buoyant, and though inflation is down significantly from its high, it is still elevated. These major factors and many minor ones are pushing Treasury yields higher, which is pushing mortgage rates up. Given the current position of the Federal Reserve, which intends to keep rates “higher for longer,” it is unlikely that home buyers will get much reprieve when it comes to borrowing costs any time soon.
With such a persistently positive economy, I have had to revise my forecast yet again. I now believe rates will hold at current levels before starting to trend down in the spring of next year.
❱ The average time it took to sell a home in the counties covered by this report rose 17 days compared to the same period in 2022.
❱ Homes sold fastest in Salt Lake County; Wasatch County was the slowest. All areas saw market time rise compared to the third quarter of 2022, but all counties except Wasatch saw market time fall compared to the second quarter of this year.
❱ During the third quarter, it took an average of 52 days to sell a home. Market time fell three days compared to the second quarter of 2023.
❱ Even when faced with more inventory and higher financing costs, it was impressive to see the length of time it took to sell a home in the region fall, albeit modestly, from the second quarter.
This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.
The region saw average market time fall even though the number of available homes rose, which should favor home sellers. That said, closed and pending sales fell, and list price growth was flat.
This suggests to me that the market is lacking direction, which is to be expected given that mortgage rates are at their highest level in over 20 years. Current buyers are likely weighing whether interest rates will come down and, if they do, how long they’ll have to wait to refinance out of a loan with a rate well above seven percent.
Inventory growth and mortgage rates aside, the market has seen a very significant runup in prices since the start of the pandemic, so it wouldn’t surprise me if both prices and sales remain fairly static for the balance of the year.
As such, I am moving the needle more toward the middle, with neither buyers nor sellers really having the upper hand.
As the leaves fall and the first snowflakes hint at the winter to come, I’m thrilled to bring you a blend of valuable content. In this issue, you’ll find the latest real estate market statistics, eagerly anticipated 2023-24 Utah Ski Resort opening dates, insightful real estate articles, economic updates shaping our market, a look at Ski Magazine’s top 30 resort rankings for 2024, Deer Valley’s new snow park project, Park City Thanksgiving Feasts and Festivities, and a curated collection of real estate listings. Join me on this journey through the changing seasons and the vibrant world of Park City real estate. It’s a time for reflection, gratitude, and a touch of mountain magic as we head into the holiday season.